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With Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, many European leaders are grappling with the implications of his policies on transatlantic relations and global stability.
After his previous term, in which the U.S. distanced itself from numerous multilateral institutions, there is growing concern about what his next term might bring.
There are many topics at hand, and today, I would like to focus mainly on two issues: the war in Ukraine and climate change policy.

One of the most pressing concerns for Europe is the future of U.S. support for Ukraine. During Trump’s first term, his “America First” rhetoric suggested he was less inclined to engage in foreign conflicts. Although he provided some military aid to Ukraine, Trump’s stance on international conflicts was often ambivalent. His comments during the 2020 campaign about potentially ending the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” through negotiations with Russia raised alarm in Kyiv, as many feared a potential abandonment of Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has worked closely with Western allies to secure support, seems to have sought to build a more conciliatory relationship with Trump.
In a recent statement, Zelensky indicated that he was open to engaging with Trump diplomatically, acknowledging his emphasis on “peace through strength.”
However, European leaders must still be convinced about Trump’s proper stance.
His call for a ceasefire, freezing the conflict with Russia in its current state and the potential loss of territories to Moscow, is troubling for those invested in a Ukrainian victory and territorial integrity.

The concern is that a Trump presidency could signal a shift in U.S. policy from the current bipartisan support for Ukraine to a more isolationist approach, potentially weakening the resolve of the EU and NATO in supporting Ukraine’s war effort.

Another significant issue for the EU is Trump’s stance on climate change.
His past administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and attempts to roll back environmental regulations marked a stark contrast to the climate policies pursued by the Biden-Harris administration.
Trump has also vowed to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a flagship policy that will invest billions in green energy technologies and reduce the U.S. carbon footprint.
His “drill, baby, drill” approach, emphasizing fossil fuel development, could undo years of progress in U.S. clean energy efforts.

Europe, already a leader in the fight against climate change, views these steps with concern. Trump’s climate policies risk undermining global climate targets and stalling international cooperation on the issue.

Although Trump’s relationship with figures like Elon Musk may influence his policies on electric vehicles, a second Trump term is expected to focus on expanding the oil, gas, and coal industries while limiting green energy incentives. This presents a significant challenge for European Member States striving to meet their ambitious climate goals and maintain momentum in global climate negotiations.
In this new landscape, some EU leaders stressed the key importance of a stronger Europe in navigating the current globlal scenario.
Mario Draghi, the former President of the European Central Bank, highlighted that Trump’s presidency would significantly impact on U.S.-EU relations, especially in terms of economic policy. He predicted that Trump would prioritize boosting innovative sectors and protecting traditional industries—sectors where Europe exports significantly to the U.S. As a result, Draghi stressed the need for a united European approach when negotiating with the U.S. to protect European products from potential challenges posed by U.S. trade policies.
Also, French President Emmanuel Macron called on Europe to strengthen its strategic autonomy. In his speech at the European Political Community (CPE) summit in Budapest, Macron urged the EU to accelerate the development of its defense capabilities, while maintaining cooperation with NATO, stating that Europe should no longer be dependent on the U.S. for its security.

To conclude, Trump’s previous presidency demonstrated unpredictability but showed a deep ambivalence towards multilateralism. European leaders will need to navigate these uncertainties with caution, strengthening their own political and economic alliances, while preparing for a future where U.S. policies may swing between isolationist and interventionist tendencies.

Written by: Cristina Ceccarelli