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The EPP’s dominance in the forthcoming elections is expected to lead to more stringent migration policies, focusing on tightening borders and increasing security measures. With Ursula von der Leyen likely to continue as the President-designate of the European Commission, there is an anticipated shift towards a more conservative and restrictive approach to migration. This includes reinforcing external borders, increasing funding for Frontex (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency), and enhancing cooperation with third countries to curb irregular migration. The election results underscore a clear preference for policies that prioritize national security and control over migration flows, reflecting a growing sentiment among European citizens for a more managed and controlled migration system.

The focus on restrictive migration policies is not new, but the scale of the political shift suggests that future measures could be more comprehensive and far-reaching. This could involve revising the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) to make it more restrictive and aligned with national interests, potentially including measures such as faster processing of asylum claims, stricter criteria for granting asylum, and increased efforts to return unsuccessful applicants to their countries of origin. These changes aim to address the perceived failures of the current system, which many right-wing parties argue is too lenient and has led to uncontrolled migration flows into Europe.

At the national level, the election results could embolden governments to adopt tougher stances on migration and asylum. Countries that have traditionally been more open to migration may now face pressure to align their policies with the new EU-wide direction, potentially leading to a reduction in the number of asylum seekers accepted and an increase in deportations. This shift could also lead to heightened tensions between EU member states, as countries with more liberal migration policies clash with those advocating for stricter controls. The divergence in national policies could complicate efforts to develop a unified EU approach to migration, leading to a more fragmented and uneven landscape where individual countries pursue their own migration agendas.

The rightward shift in the European Parliament also signals a potential increase in funding and resources for border security and migration control measures. This could include investments in new technologies for border surveillance, increased staffing for border agencies, and expanded detention facilities for migrants awaiting deportation. Such measures are likely to be controversial, as they raise concerns about the treatment of migrants and the potential for human rights abuses. Critics argue that a focus on security and control neglects the underlying causes of migration and fails to address the humanitarian needs of those seeking asylum.

The election results also have significant implications for the EU’s relationships with neighboring countries and regions that are key sources of migration. The EPP’s emphasis on externalizing migration control suggests a continuation and expansion of agreements with countries in Africa, the Middle East, and other regions to prevent migrants from reaching European shores. These agreements, which often involve financial assistance and development aid in exchange for tighter border controls and readmission agreements, are likely to be strengthened and expanded under the new political landscape. While such measures can help reduce migration flows, they also risk outsourcing the EU’s migration challenges to countries that may lack the capacity or willingness to manage them effectively.

The shift towards more restrictive migration policies could also impact the integration of migrants and asylum seekers already living in Europe. With a greater focus on control and security, there may be less emphasis on policies aimed at supporting integration and ensuring that migrants can contribute positively to their host societies. This could lead to increased social tensions and a greater sense of marginalization among migrant communities, undermining efforts to build cohesive and inclusive societies.

In the longer term, the political shift in the European Parliament could lead to significant changes in the EU’s migration and asylum framework, including revisions to key policies and agreements that govern the movement of people within and into Europe. This could involve re-negotiating the Dublin Regulation, which determines the member state responsible for processing asylum claims, to reflect a more restrictive approach to burden-sharing and asylum procedures. The election results may also influence the EU’s stance on international migration agreements, such as the Global Compact for Migration, potentially leading to a more cautious and selective approach to international cooperation on migration issues.

Overall, the 2024 European Parliament election marks a significant turning point for the EU’s migration and asylum policies. The rise of the EPP and the broader shift to the right reflect a growing preference for more controlled and restrictive migration measures, which will shape the future of migration management in Europe. As European leaders and institutions navigate this new political landscape, they will need to balance the need for effective migration control with the imperative to uphold humanitarian principles and protect the rights of migrants and asylum seekers. The task ahead is to develop policies that address the complexities of migration in a way that is both effective and compassionate, ensuring that Europe remains a place of refuge and opportunity for those seeking a better life.

Written by: Nenad Stekić