Estimated time of reading: ~ 4 minutes

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, public opinion in Europe has been strongly polarised by the tangible and “hypothetical” effects of the crisis created between the West and Russia. The increase in energy prices and the resulting inflationary dynamics that have hit the entire continent have been one of the main topics of discussion throughout the European Union for months, both among politicians and ordinary citizens. Added to all this was the fear of a potential enlargement of the conflict to Europe, to which Russia’s recurrent threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons inevitably contributed. In this dynamic, the European Union authorities have struggled to maintain a common position with the member states, where some leaders, in particular the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have often resorted to the scarecrow of war and popular anti-war sentiment to discourage continued support for Ukraine.

Three years after the start of the Russian invasion, with the prospects of peace negotiations having become more concrete since Donald Trump took office, European nations have discovered the need to ensure greater autonomy in matters of defence and security. The plan for the rearmament of the EU proposed by the European Commission clearly goes in this direction, but it has raised concerns among those segments of the population who do not consider it a priority, in an era of great economic difficulty, to dedicate further funding to the defence industry. In this perspective, the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) has already expressed reservations about the timing and approach of the defence package, particularly concerning its potential impact on civic spaces in Europe. In 2024, the EESC argued that the package could harm civic spaces and undermine the credibility of the EU as an international actor. Hostile actors such as Russia could exploit this dynamic, exacerbating political tensions and using their tools, especially digitally, to promote messages against the European rearmament process. The Kremlin has already aimed over the past three years to increase fear among European citizens about the consequences of a further expansion of the war, involving their own states. This tactic could be revived by leveraging the anti-war discourse that has accompanied the proposals by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to send soldiers to Ukraine as a peacekeeping contingent following a possible ceasefire. Speeches of this kind have already been made by several European leaders, the aforementioned Orban and the Slovakian Robert Fico, as well as being echoed in the words of exponents of the sovereign right, such as the representatives of the Patriots group in the European Parliament.

At the same time, the economic implications of the Rearm Europe plan are substantial, as the increased defence spending is expected to stimulate economic activity, particularly in the military industry and all those related. This could lead to job creation and economic growth in various sectors. From another perspective, the defence package aims to shield European democracy from malign foreign actors (namely Russia) and bolster democratic resilience from within, as it advocates for more strategic autonomy, prompting a “buy European” message that would have a clear impact on the economies and the society as a whole, somehow freeing the EU also by the deep ties and dependence of the US in the service sector and in the digital sphere. 

Written by: Francesco Marino