Estimated time of reading: ~ 5 minutes

Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential elections in the United States, and his new administration, which will be sworn in on January 20, could for sure pursue a different approach on both energy and climate issues from Joe Biden’s government. This could have a major impact on the EU policies on the matter, taking into account the evolution that underwent during the last 4 years, while Trump was away from the White House and the European governments had to face the reality of Russia’s war in aggression in Ukraine and all the consequences that the decision made by the Kremlin had on the energy relations between Moscow and its Western counterparts. The EU as a whole endured dire times but looks now better prepared for energy shocks, and the European plans for the green revolution have a more coherent platform to develop from. So, how can a new Trump administration cope with the EU approach towards energy and climate change? The policies and rhetoric during Trump’s first term at the White House often reflected a nationalist and transactional vision, which had implications for the general EU-US relationship and in terms of energy security, climate policy, and trade. Let’s not forget that one of the most significant changes in the transatlantic shared vision on such issues was Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in 2017, a move that created a rift between Washington and Brussels. The EU, as one of the strongest advocates for international climate action on the global stage, viewed Trump’s decision as a setback in the efforts to combat climate change, and the most prominent European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, were vocal in their opposition to the US’s retreat. 

In this perspective, the America First energy policy of the first Trump administration also led to a prioritisation of fossil fuels, particularly coal, oil, and natural gas, over renewable energy sources. In light of what happened in recent years, Trump’s focus on traditional energy resources was clearly at odds with the EU’s push towards decarbonisation and the Green Deal, which aimed to make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050 and was enhanced after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, with European countries eager to find alternative sources for hydrocarbons, the greater energy production and exports promoted under the first term of Trump at the White House ensured strong supplies for the EU economies, especially with liquefied natural gas (LNG).

What to expect in the next four years? During his electoral campaign, Trump already made clear that he is willing to support a relevant shift in the US energy policy, focusing on the use of fossil fuels while opting for a significant scaling back of renewable sources, a vision at odds with the one of the Biden administration. The next US president considers changes in the national energy policies as necessary in order to reduce energy costs in the United States, together with achieving “energy dominance,” aiming to boost the competitiveness of American industries. Another task that the Trump administration will pursue is the removal of regulations on drilling for oil and gas on US soil, pushing for a further growth in hydrocarbons’ production.

Written by: Francesco Marino