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The European Union has changed its perspective with respect to its security and defence needs as a result of the rather rapid developments in transatlantic relations since Donald Trump took office in the White House. The distance of views on the dossier regarding the war in Ukraine and global challenges in general has created in European chancelleries an urgency to act and assume responsibilities traditionally entrusted to NATO, at least in recent decades. In this perspective, the following should be framed as the new EU defence package, known as “Rearm Europe,” which represents a significant shift in the bloc’s defence strategy. Such a package aims to mobilise up to €800 billion to enhance defence capabilities across member states, particularly in response to the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine and the need for increased European self-reliance in defence. The initiative includes joint borrowing, fiscal exemptions, and new investment tools, focusing on areas such as air and missile defence, artillery systems, drones, and cyber capabilities. However, the implications of this defence package extend beyond military readiness, potentially impacting the EU economies in several ways.

Energy is one of these areas, since the independence and resilience of the European continent depend not only on capabilities in terms of defence but also on the prospects for energy security, as already clearly seen in recent years, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The energy crisis that affected all European countries after the substantial suspension of oil and gas imports from the Russian Federation exposed the inherent weaknesses of a system that relied almost exclusively on a single supplier, which moreover was already considered unreliable from a strategic perspective because of what happened in the years of Vladimir Putin’s rise to power. As a result, in the months following the invasion launched by the Kremlin against the neighbouring country, both the EU and individual member states found new energy partners, turning primarily to Norway, a “friendly” nation in its own right and a NATO ally, but also to other suppliers in the European neighbourhood area, especially in the wider Mediterranean. Accompanying energy security with greater autonomy in terms of defence would therefore be a far-sighted choice, which would offer the European Union the possibility of being prepared to face future challenges or shocks such as those faced in the last five years. There is also another key aspect to take into account when we talk about European rearmament. In fact, the defence sector is inherently energy-intensive, with armed forces being significant consumers of energy. Thus, the EU’s new defence package is likely to increase energy demand all over the continent, as military capabilities are enhanced and new technologies are deployed. Without a proper plan to manage such a dynamic, this increased demand could strain energy resources and potentially lead to higher energy prices in the near future. Maintaining a proper balance between industrial, defence, and general economic needs, along with those of households in the EU, could prevent the emergence of energy crises and strengthen the security of all member states.

Written by: Francesco Marino