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Political instability in the Western Balkans is not a new feature in the region, while it is the direct consequence of the tumultuous and violent breakup of Yugoslavia and the result of a terrible decade of wars. Still to this day, various issues can be considered a real threat to the coexistence of different ethnic groups within the same border, as the multinational Federation of Yugoslavia was not divided into constituent republics that worked as watertight compartments.

The North of Kosovo, or the Republic of Srpska, part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, are self-evident proofs of this dynamic, with an impact on the social and economic aspects of everyday life for the citizens of these areas. While EU integration is seen by many as a tool to resolve once and for all a large part of the critical issues in the Western Balkans, internal reforms are complex, and the path toward European membership appears quite hard to predict. As of today, governments in the region face an emergency tied to high migration numbers, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which already have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. As many experts have noticed, the combination of population decline, due to migration and low fertility rates, combined with population aging, has a negative impact on economic growth. Such a dynamic leads to an increase in labor shortages and increasing pressure on the social protection systems. 

If we also add high political instability and the constant fear of ethnic tensions, the picture becomes even darker: foreign investors can be scared of taking risks in the Western Balkans, aware of the liability of the system and the sometimes erratic behavior of local governments. What we saw in the last few weeks in the north of Kosovo, with the attack in Banjska, confirms all the complexities of the region and how they can prevent any real positive development on the social and economic aspects that interest citizens.

Written by: Francesco Marino