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Europe has been waiting for years to see an end to the war in Ukraine. Since 2022, the European Union has shown support and solidarity towards the authorities in Kyiv and the Ukrainian people. Still, a definitive stop to the fighting ongoing on European soil would be greatly welcomed by Brussels and all the EU governments. The matter is how the war should end: in the past three years, all European leaders talked about the need for a “just peace,” one that respects the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. What the US administration has in mind is probably quite far away from what both the EU and Ukraine expect, and this means that the potential impact of a negotiated deal between Washington and Moscow could be considered a direct blow to European security as a whole.

In such a context, it is important to highlight how the concept of European security also regards the social and economic spheres, as the EU paid a high price in the last three years in order to overcome the negative effects of the war while helping out Ukraine and the refugees coming from the invaded country. Among the most important actions taken by the EU, we should remember the temporary protection mechanism for Ukrainian citizens fleeing the conflict and entering the bloc; the humanitarian aid for internally displaced people in Ukraine; the civil protection support to Ukraine, countries hosting refugees (Czechia, Poland, Slovakia, and the Republic of Moldova), and the UN Refugee Agency; the financial and technical support for member states hosting refugees; and the border management support for EU countries hosting refugees and for Moldova. The EU Council also agreed on a recommendation on the exchange of Ukrainian hryvnia banknotes into EU currencies to support people escaping the war in Ukraine back in April 2022. The scheme still allows displaced persons from Ukraine, including children, to exchange up to 10,000 hryvnias (approximately €310) per person. This would be free of charge and at the official exchange rate as published by the National Bank of Ukraine. Furthermore, a voluntary agreement between EU and Ukrainian operators is in place, with the aim to allow millions of Ukrainian refugees to call Ukraine for free or at affordable rates. Such a voluntary initiative has already been extended, and the EU Commission is currently working on a longer-term arrangement for bringing Ukraine into the EU roaming area, a potentially important and yet symbolic step towards Kyiv’s further inclusion in the bloc.

On the economic side, the European Union and its member states also have interests in the reconstruction process in Ukraine, once the war is finished. Being left out of the negotiations could represent a liability for all the companies that are ready to invest in the Ukrainian economy for the next years or decades. The rare-earth deal discussed by representatives of the United States and Ukraine in the last weeks looks like a solution that will inevitably exclude European nations and their companies from a potentially very interesting future sector and in which the European Union risks remaining perpetually behind the United States and China. It is not surprising that US President Donald Trump wanted to involve the Kiev authorities in a project that would benefit almost exclusively the US economy.

Written by: Francesco Marino