Impact of French Parliamentary Elections on EU Strategic Autonomy
Editorial 15 July 2024When the TV stations broadcasted the first official projections related to the French elections on the evening of July 7 at 8 p.m., the surprise, and in some cases relief, was widespread, not only in France but across much of Europe. The RN, winner of the first round, had slipped to third place, increasing the number of votes and deputies compared to the 2022 elections but once again remaining excluded from the possibility of governing. The withdrawals, orchestrated by President Macron and the Nouveau Front Populaire, worked and prevented the far right from winning.
In many corners of Europe, there was a sigh of relief. European analysts and politicians feared that the potential rise of the far right to power in France—the EU’s second most powerful economy—would sow economic and political instability and undermine the bloc’s unwavering support for Ukraine. A second-round victory by the far-right Rassemblement National party would have posed a further threat to the EU’s support for Ukraine. Marine Le Pen’s party has historical ties with Russia and had promised to limit French aid to Ukraine.
Among the first to comment on X regarding the exit polls was Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who wrote: “In Paris, enthusiasm; in Moscow, disappointment; relief in Kyiv.”
Now President Macron faces a complicated and unprecedented challenge: forming a government with a parliament without a clear majority and with centrifugal forces in all factions. Without a clear path towards a coalition government, Paris’s political impasse casts further uncertainty on France’s ability to exert its influence in Brussels.
Written by: Nicola Frau
