Estimated time of reading: ~ 4 minutes

Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States promises to create more problems for the European Union and its member countries. At a time of political and economic hardship for many European nations, Germany and France foremost among them, the Republican tycoon’s arrival in the White House is likely to find the European Union weakened and exposed to threats that seemed distant during Joe Biden’s four years at the helm of the United States. The main topic of concern is economic tariffs, which could aggravate the already very complicated situation of European industries. Trump seems well aware of this dynamic and is blowing on the fire, calling for heavy consequences for the European Union if it does not comply with the U.S. economic will, jeopardising the stability of transatlantic relations. However, it is not only about the economic aspects: the possibility that Trump and his sovereignist Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement are trying to split European society, fostering the emergence of far-right actors opposed to EU integration, is quite real. An example of this is Elon Musk’s attempts to lend support to formations considered “dangerous” to the holding of democracy, such as Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and Reform UK in Great Britain. Musk, as a main ally of Donald Trump and a prominent figure in the global economy, as well as the owner of one of the most popular social networks in the world, can deeply influence socio-economic dynamics both in the US and in Europe, especially if he reaches out to national leaders. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now rebranded as X) has raised concerns about his influence on social media, particularly in how online platforms shape political discourse and promote fake news among the population. In an era of rising populism and growing political polarisation, the contents that users can find and share on X could exacerbate divisions within the EU, especially as national populist movements gain traction in countries that are set to vote in the next months, such as Germany and Romania, where the Constitutional Court already took the historic decision to cancel the results of the presidential elections held in November 2024, due to “hostile actions” by foreign actors through social platforms like TikTok. Generally speaking, Musk’s influence over the digital sphere could thus lead to the rise of anti-EU sentiment in various countries, further emboldening Eurosceptic political forces. Migration, as one of the key issues for the Trump administration, can easily translate on the European continent into a political tool for the White House and its supporters for creating division among the EU member states as well as in European societies. In his first term, Trump pushed an agenda that emphasised building a physical wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, implementing stringent travel bans targeting predominantly Muslim countries, and enacting measures to limit asylum-seeking procedures. The next four years could see the White House following a similar path, emerging as a potential model for Europe, as right-wing parties advocate. Let’s not forget how social tensions created by the Trump administration’s immigration policies, particularly the separation of families at the U.S.-Mexico border, resonated strongly in Europe, where human rights groups and politicians voiced concern over the treatment of immigrants and extremist voices asked to replicate such an approach on the EU external borders, especially in the Mediterranean Sea. It is pretty clear that this issue will maintain a central role in European politics in the next few years, promoted by the Trump administration and its allies, not just Elon Musk.

Written by: Francesco Marino