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Germany is one of the leading countries in the European Union, both as the most populated nation and the EU’s largest economy. From such a position, Berlin has consistently exerted a significant influence on the EU’s economic and social stability, especially after the 2004 enlargement of the Union towards Central and Eastern Europe. Basically all the countries that became EU members in that year and after look at Germany as one of their main economic and political partners. It is thus consequential that the political decisions taken in Berlin have often set the tone for the whole EU, shaping its trajectory and impacting the lives of millions of citizens across the continent, as Germany’s economic prowess has been a driving force behind the EU’s integration. The country’s commitment to the single market and to the development of the Eurozone has clearly been instrumental in fostering economic growth and stability in the EU, while German policies, such as fiscal austerity and structural reforms, have often been advocated as models for other member states to follow, as happened with the so-called PIIGS, in particular Greece, after the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

In the last months, Germany emerged as one of the slowest economies in the EU, due to the combined effects of external issues and internal problems. Forecasts for this year and for the next one seem pretty negative, confirming an almost scary outlook for the German economy and thus for all the countries that depend, even partially, on the “European economic engine.” At the same time, these difficulties cast a shadow on the future role of Germany as a EU pillar, a role that the country played for decades.

The next parliamentary elections in Germany will thus be crucial to understand what the citizens think of their current problems and the best way to solve them. Recent local elections in German regions such as Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg showed a strong increase of political support for the far right party—and associated with neo-nazist movements—Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), a dynamic seen elsewhere in Europe, and that can be explained with the perception of social and economic injustice among the citizens. Just a few weeks ago, a similar result came out from the parliamentary elections in neighbouring Austria, with the victory, for the first time in the history of the country, of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). Even though polls conducted in Germany do not foresee a triumph for Alternative for Deutschland, many observers of German politics believe that the party could gain an important result in the next vote, set in 2025, maybe taking the second spot after the conservative alliance between CDU and CSU. Such a result would be quite regardable for AfD and could have an impact on many social and economic policies of the next German government, even with Alternative for Deutschland in the opposition. After the local vote in Thuringia and Sassonia, due also to some terrorist attacks in the country, all the main parties invoked a different approach to migration policies, somehow following the request made in recent years by AfD. It would not come as a surprise if this new line of thought in Berlin will shape EU policies on migration and refugees.

Written by: Francesco Marino