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As Belarus nears its 2025 presidential election, the country finds itself in a precarious position, with multiple crises shaping both the political landscape and President Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power. The ongoing war in Ukraine, a migrant crisis at Belarus’s borders with the European Union, and an influx of asylum seekers have collectively created a challenging political and humanitarian environment. These factors are likely to influence the direction of the upcoming election, making it a pivotal moment for Belarus.

The conflict in Ukraine has had significant repercussions for Belarus, especially in terms of refugee migration. By late 2023, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Belarus had increased to around 37,000, up from 22,000 just a few months earlier. Most of these refugees come from regions severely impacted by the conflict, including Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk, and they face considerable difficulties. Many find healthcare unaffordable, with 80% of surveyed Ukrainian refugees identifying cash assistance as their most urgent need. While some have found refuge with relatives, a significant portion lives in rented accommodation, adding financial strain. The presence of these refugees places additional demands on Belarus’s social services and economy, potentially affecting public sentiment as citizens experience the impact of supporting newcomers.

For Lukashenko, the war in Ukraine presents a strategic dilemma. While he has maintained a close alliance with Russia, supporting Moscow risks pushing Belarus further into international isolation, especially as the European Union and other Western nations impose sanctions. Lukashenko’s careful balancing act between showing allegiance to Russia and avoiding even harsher sanctions is a delicate one, and his handling of this situation could become a focal point of the upcoming election.

The migrant crisis on Belarus’s borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia adds another layer of complexity. Since 2021, Belarus has been accused of using migrants, predominantly from the Middle East and Africa, as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the European Union. This tactic, viewed by some as an attempt to destabilize the EU, has led to strained diplomatic relations and heightened tensions. In response, EU border countries have fortified their frontiers, while Poland is reportedly considering a new migration strategy that would allow it to suspend asylum applications in certain situations. For Belarus, these developments could mean further isolation, and the continued presence of migrants within the country’s borders has sparked domestic debates about resource allocation, human rights, and national identity.

Beyond Ukrainian refugees and the migrants linked to the EU border crisis, Belarus is also contending with asylum seekers from diverse regions, including Guinea, Egypt, Afghanistan, and Cuba. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) recently estimated that around 1,350 vulnerable migrants currently reside in Belarus, with 59% having entered through the Russian Federation. Many are traveling with children, and a significant number report serious health conditions or chronic illnesses. This influx of people adds both humanitarian and political pressures for Lukashenko, as he must address the needs of asylum seekers while maintaining stability and appeasing the local population.

The upcoming 2025 election will undoubtedly be influenced by these interconnected crises. Domestically, the presence of a large number of refugees and migrants may alter public opinion, potentially amplifying support for nationalist or anti-immigration narratives. Economic pressures resulting from the strain on social services, coupled with the challenges of absorbing so many new arrivals, could become key issues in the election, especially if these pressures affect the quality of life for Belarusian citizens. Lukashenko’s handling of these situations will be closely scrutinized, not only by voters but also by the international community. Missteps, especially in terms of human rights, could lead to additional sanctions, deepening Belarus’s diplomatic and economic isolation.

The opposition in Belarus may seize upon these challenges to mount criticisms against Lukashenko’s administration, painting him as the architect of Belarus’s increasing isolation and the economic hardships that follow. They may leverage these crises to highlight the negative impacts of Lukashenko’s alignment with Russia and his hardline stance on immigration issues, presenting a vision of Belarus that is more integrated with the international community. Lukashenko, on the other hand, may attempt to frame these crises within a security narrative, portraying himself as a protector against external threats. The proximity of the Ukraine conflict and the influx of migrants at EU borders give him ample material to position himself as the guarantor of national security, a tactic that could resonate with parts of the electorate concerned about stability.

As the election nears, these crises place Belarus at a crossroads. The country’s economic stability, social cohesion, and international relations all hang in the balance. Lukashenko’s ability to manage these intersecting issues while maintaining his hold on power will be critical. He must carefully navigate his alliance with Russia, manage humanitarian obligations toward refugees and asylum seekers, and address the concerns of Belarusian citizens who may be wary of their country’s direction. His strategies could range from deepening ties with Moscow to pursuing more self-sufficient, inward-focused policies that mitigate external pressures.

Written by: Nenad Stekić