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How old is a chicken or egg story, is never a solved issue. Social phenomena, such as those manifested in international relations, sometimes have a cyclical repetition, so that it is not possible to determine which variable causes the appearance of another. Migratory movements have been a phenomenon that has existed since the beginning of humanity, but in the last few decades the migratory cycle has drastically increased from economically less developed to developed areas. Additionally, armed conflicts occurring around the world also cause migration. This article briefly analyzes how crises have created problems embodied in mass and often illegal migratory movements. At the beginning of this century, a number of global security challenges such as the terrorist attacks on the United States, followed by Western military interventions on Afghanistan and then on Iraq, created numerous forced migratory flows to Western countries.

Regarding the agreement on resolving the migrant crisis few years ago, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated: “The EU has been sold to Turkey” in an effort to resolve the refugee crisis, and the consequences of that cannot be predicted. In an interview with the German newspaper, he criticized the agreement between Brussels and Ankara, according to which migrants who do not seek asylum in Greece return to Turkey, and the EU has committed to provide up to 6 billion euros in aid to Turkey and abolish visas for Turkish citizens. EU security must not be in the hands of a force outside the EU. “We, the EU members, have already paid 3 billion euros to Turkey, and we will soon pay another 3 billion. It is not possible to predict where this will end”. Furthermore, he announced that Brussels made a “mistake” because it focused on the redistribution of refugees instead of protecting its borders. More detailed analyzes and prognostic considerations indicate that the migrant crisis will continue, and its consequences could be disastrous for Europe as a whole.

After the Syrian crisis, more than 1 million migrants have fled towards the Western Europe. Mass immigration to the West began even quite earlier. It started after World War II and is closely linked to the country’s economic development. Workers from abroad were employed to respond to the growing economic, industrial and production needs in the post-war period. In this way, the advantages of having a surplus labor force in other countries were used. Initially, immigration to the more developed areas was considered a temporary phenomenon. As a result of such an attitude, great emphasis has been placed on the replacement of foreign labor, and a system of time-limited work permits has been established.

The European migration crisis is a complex phenomenon to understand and explain. Nothing in the geopolitical arena appears by chance, spontaneously and does not happen in a magical way. That is, all global phenomena and events are caused by something, all world processes and currents are determined by something. Within this framework, numerous and mutually very different geopolitical paradigms (models, ways of theory) of seeing the causes that led to this exodus of the population are offered. The respected analysts, historians and statesmen have given answers to all the questions asked and made the migration crisis very understandable. Some of them also offered guidelines for resolving this crisis, which will certainly facilitate the understanding of its essence and the quick reaction of all sovereign countries in the protection of their borders, cultural and historical heritage and sovereignty.

Apparently, there is no time to wait, only a quick and unique response from Europe to this problem can bring results. Migration is a phenomenon that is definitely caused by crises (either natural or caused by wars). In the system of modern international relations, such a momentum is important, bearing in mind that it is clear to distinguish how it is possible to predict migratory waves.

Written by: Nenad Stekić

Submitted on: 17.09.2021