Estimated time of reading: ~ 4 minutes

Social issues have been one of the most covered topics before and after the parliamentary elections in France. The country, like others in Europe, faces a difficult time between weak economic growth, high inflation rates, and a general discontent among the population, especially the younger generation. French citizens also believe that there is a huge gap between living conditions in some areas of the country and others, as the “yellow vests” protests have already shown in the last few years. President Emmanuel Macron somehow realised the importance of a new vote in the country, and decided to call snap legislative elections after the defeat of his party at the EU parliamentary elections. “Current challenges require clarity in our debates, ambitions for our country, and respect for each of our citizens—that’s why I’ve decided… to give you again the choice of our parliamentary future,” Macron said on the evening of the 9th of June, speaking from the Elysee Palace. The legislative elections in the end saw the victory of the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing alliance that has promised the French citizens generous measures to boost purchasing power in the country, jeopardised by the recent economic crisis. The New Popular Front also proposed to withdraw the controversial pension reform of the previous government, a plan that raised the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 years in France, despite numerous and crowded protests all over the country. The NFP intends to reduce that threshold to 60 years, in a context in which France’s public debt stood at almost 110% of the gross domestic product in 2023 and a general financial instability raised alarms in Brussels. As the country’s budget deficit amounted to 5.5% last year, the European Union recently opened an excessive deficit procedure against France, in line with the Stability and Growth Pact, that only allows for a public debt of 60% of GDP and a 3% budget deficit among the EU member states.

Most probably, the New Popular Front, or part of the Alliance, will be at the helm of the new majority in the French Parliament. Such a coalition will have many issues to cope with and could face a hard time finding the right balance between the different economic approaches promoted by the parties involved. Some analysts believe that the outcome of the French parliamentary elections will cause both political and financial instability, as a potential deadlock on relevant decisions can become a real problem not only in the country but also for the EU, which thrives with an ambitious double transition in the energy and digital spheres.

Furthermore, persisting social tensions can erase the yet weak solidity of the future coalition and, at the same time, promote the instances of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party from the perspective of the 2027 French presidential elections. France is considered a well positioned country in terms of quality of life and government, but still, the problem posed by the sluggish economic performance of the last few years and the growing social inequalities led many voters to prefer Le Pen’s slogans. President Emmanuel Macron knows well the risk of having a troubled coalition at the helm of the country, with a rioting Parliament proposing motions of no confidence for the Prime Minister and the members of his Cabinet from now to 2027. This is why the Elisee could pursue a strategy to find a simple and reliable majority within the French National Assembly, at the risk of splitting the New Popular Front.

Written by: Francesco Marino