Estimated time of reading: ~ 3 minutes  

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is a worst-case scenario for most of the EU government and for many people in the European institutions. A second term of Trump as president could have a destabilizing effect on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and reinforce the right-wing momentum seen in European elections in the last year and a half. Economy and security would be the two main issues to look at in the event of Trump’s victory in November 2024. In his first term, the Republican president has been unpredictable and definitely not reliable, as he showed in trade talks with European counterparts. According to the German American Chamber of Commerce, Trump could decide to impose punitive tariffs on trade with the EU, leading to Brussels increasing customs duties and taxes in response. In such a dynamic, trade volumes between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean would likely fall, with a deep impact on economic growth, in a context in which European economies are already suffering from the “polycrisis” of the last few years. For all these reasons, European citizens should fear a second Trump election and its effects on their everyday lives, as stability in the socio-economic sphere is now more important than ever, at least in recent times. 

With two wars going on now and possibly still in late 2024, the arrival of a well-known “troublemaker” at the White House would worsen the reality faced by European economies and cast a rather bleaker perspective on their evolution in the next few years. Then there is the security issue. Trump has already threatened in the past to withdraw the US from NATO, a move that would completely destabilize the European continent. Even if we assume that such a development seems irrealistic, his second term as president could see an ever more radicalized Trump on matters related to foreign politics and defense, leading to irrational choices. Retiring US support for Ukraine, something that the Republican candidate has already reiterated on many occasions, would put countries in Eastern and even Central Europe in danger as Russia could try to put further pressure on the region.

Written by: Francesco Marino