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The End of an Era: Gas Supply Disruptions

The halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine—a deal that had persisted since the Soviet Union’s collapse—has been described as a “historic event” by Ukrainian officials. The decision not to renew the transit agreement was driven by Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia, which escalated dramatically in 2022. The Ukrainian government has made it clear that it would not allow Moscow to profit from its aggression while simultaneously undermining its own energy security. This move has significant implications for countries like Moldova and Slovakia, which have been heavily reliant on Russian gas. For Moldova, the end of Russian gas supplies is particularly catastrophic. The country has long been vulnerable due to its dependence on Russian energy sources, and the lack of preparedness for this eventuality has left it in a precarious situation. Moldova’s government declared a state of emergency in December 2024, anticipating the fallout from the gas supply halt. The situation is dire in Transnistria, where residents are facing severe energy shortages due to a lack of alternative sources.

Migration Pressures Intensify

The energy crisis resulting from the cessation of Russian gas supplies is expected to trigger increased migration within and beyond these regions. In Moldova, as citizens face rolling blackouts and skyrocketing energy costs, many may seek refuge in neighboring countries or further afield in Europe. This migration could be compounded by political instability as public discontent grows over the government’s inability to manage the crisis effectively. According to UNHCR data, as of early 2025, over 6 million Ukrainian refugees have fled their country since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. A significant portion of these refugees has sought asylum in neighboring countries like Poland and Romania, with over 1 million Ukrainians residing in Poland alone by late 2023. The influx has strained local resources and services but has also led to increased labor participation among Ukrainian refugees—approximately 2.7 million jobs created in the EU between 2019 and 2023 were filled by non-EU citizens, including many Ukrainians. Transnistria’s situation is particularly alarming. The region’s leadership has rejected offers of assistance from Moldova and the European Union (EU), opting instead to wait for Russia to restore gas supplies. This decision could lead to social unrest as residents endure harsh winter conditions without heating or electricity. If conditions worsen, it is likely that many will flee to Moldova or other countries in search of better living conditions. Slovakia faces its own migration challenges as it grapples with rising energy prices and potential disruptions in industrial production due to its reliance on Russian gas. The Slovak government has expressed concerns about securing alternative energy sources and may see an influx of migrants from neighboring regions struggling with similar issues.

The Economic Fallout

The economic consequences of halting Russian gas supplies are profound for both Moldova and Slovakia. For Moldova, the immediate impact includes a potential humanitarian crisis as citizens struggle to cope with rising energy costs and inadequate heating during winter months. The Moldovan economy is already fragile; it relies heavily on remittances from citizens working abroad. As economic conditions deteriorate, this source of income may diminish, further exacerbating poverty levels. In 2022 alone, 241,448 persons left Moldova, marking a significant outflow driven by unfavorable socio-economic conditions exacerbated by ongoing conflicts and energy shortages. This outmigration presents challenges for a country with a population of just 2.5 million, making Moldova dependent on remittances that exceeded $2 billion in 2023—accounting for approximately 12.3% of its GDP. The loss of transit fees—approximately $800 million annually for Ukraine—also poses significant financial challenges for both Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine’s economy faces an estimated loss of $5 billion in annual gas sales due to reduced transit volumes. This financial strain could lead to deeper cuts in public services and social welfare programs at a time when they are needed most. In Slovakia, which has historically depended on Russian gas for energy security, the end of supplies will likely lead to increased costs for consumers and businesses alike. The government has warned that rising natural gas prices could push inflation rates higher, impacting the overall economy. As businesses struggle with increased operational costs, job losses may follow, leading many Slovaks to seek opportunities abroad.

Political Ramifications

The geopolitical ramifications extend beyond immediate economic concerns; they also encompass broader political dynamics within Eastern Europe. As countries like Slovakia navigate their energy needs amid rising tensions with Ukraine over gas supply issues, political leaders may face pressure to adopt more pro-Russian stances or seek alternative alliances. In Moldova, the ongoing conflict with pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria complicates matters further. The Moldovan government’s attempts to provide assistance to Transnistria have been met with resistance from local authorities who remain loyal to Moscow. This division could lead to increased tensions within Moldova itself as citizens grow frustrated with their government’s inability to address their needs during this crisis. Moreover, as migration pressures increase due to deteriorating living conditions in both Moldova and Transnistria, regional stability could be threatened further. Countries receiving an influx of migrants must grapple with integrating newcomers while addressing their own economic challenges. The cessation of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine signals a pivotal moment for Eastern Europe—a moment that could redefine energy security and geopolitical alliances for years to come. As countries like Moldova seek alternative sources of energy and reassess their dependencies on Russia, they will need support from international partners. For Slovakia, diversifying its energy portfolio will be crucial in mitigating future risks associated with supply disruptions. Investing in renewable energy sources and strengthening ties with other EU nations will be essential for ensuring long-term energy security.

Written by: Nenad Stekić