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As 2024 draws to a close, we can predict some of the main challenges shaping global affairs in the coming year. The quest for peace will remain at the forefront, with ongoing conflicts affecting various regions across the globe. Climate change and environmental issues will likely continue to be crucial, and the EU must closely follow the impact of Trump’s politics.

However, rather than focusing on the geopolitical complexities that 2025 will undoubtedly confront, this article stresses the internal issues the European Union must navigate to effectively project its voice and play a meaningful role on the world stage.

The EU’s ability to exert influence internationally depends not only on its external relationships but also on its internal cohesion and strength. The political stability of its Member States plays a crucial role in shaping the Union’s capacity to speak with one voice. Strong and stable Member States are essential for the EU to maintain its credibility and unity in global diplomacy, trade, and security. Without alignment within the EU, it risks being divided and less effective in facing external challenges and making common decisions, for example, in defence.

This is why the upcoming political events in key Member States will be critical in shaping the EU’s external policies and global role.

Consequently, we can affirm that the internal political developments of some key Member States may influence the EU’s ability to present a unified stance on the global stage.

More specifically, the future political choices of France and Germany will be strategic.

On the one hand, the French Government collapsed after Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted in a no-confidence vote on 4 December. MPs voted overwhelmingly in support of the motion against him—just three months after President Emmanuel Macron appointed him. We are still following what the next steps will be.

On the other hand, Germany is facing not only economic troubles but also political difficulties after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a confidence vote that he lost one week ago. Germany now expects early elections in February 2025.

The risk is that the internal difficulties of two of its most powerful Member States may prevent the European Union from taking decisive positions in the international arena.

To conclude, the EU will likely need its Member states to achieve political stability to act as a powerful and unified player on the world stage. Whether it is leading efforts on climate action, championing free trade, or advocating for peace and stability, the strength of the EU’s internal political landscape is a key factor in shaping its voice and influence globally.

Written by: Cristina Ceccarelli