Estimated time of reading: ~ 6 minutes

Donald Trump’s return to the White House signals a seismic shift in US-EU relations, particularly around migration and immigration policies. As the dust settles after a contentious election, both sides of the Atlantic brace for uncertainty in an area that has long balanced transatlantic cooperation with underlying tensions.

Trump’s victory speech left little doubt about his intentions, doubling down on promises of a comprehensive immigration overhaul. His pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could have far-reaching consequences for both the US and the EU. With approximately 12 million undocumented immigrants in the US, the cost and logistics are staggering. Deporting just one million individuals annually could cost over $88 billion, totaling nearly $1 trillion over a decade. This financial burden, coupled with the human cost, raises serious questions about feasibility and morality.

Europe, already grappling with its own migration challenges, watches these developments with both concern and curiosity. Trump’s hardline stance could embolden right-wing populist parties across Europe, especially in Hungary and Poland, where restrictive immigration policies are already in place. Ironically, while Trump’s policies appear extreme, Europe’s own stance on migration control mirrors similar restrictions, as EU countries push for stricter controls, faster deportations, and processing centers outside EU borders.

Trump’s return could accelerate these trends within the EU, with far-right parties potentially gaining influence in the next European Parliament elections. Centrist parties may feel pressured to adopt more conservative immigration stances to avoid losing ground, making consensus on reform more challenging as leaders balance humanitarian obligations against political pressures.

In Trump 2.0, US-EU relations will likely shift from strategic to transactional. Trump’s unpredictable approach will force EU leaders to relearn diplomatic tactics, no longer able to count on the US as a stable partner for initiatives supporting Ukraine, EU defense, economic security, or green transition goals. Yet the Trump administration may still demand more from the EU on issues like trade, China, and Ukraine support, paradoxically undermining the cooperative foundations of transatlantic relations. This could spark tit-for-tat escalations in tariffs and restrictions, further straining the alliance.

Anticipating these challenges, the EU has been fortifying its defenses, focusing on trade, tech, AI, and investment policies aimed at buffering against potential US demands. Strengthening self-sufficiency in critical tech, climate, and raw materials sectors remains a priority. However, these preparations may not fully weather the storm of a Trump presidency determined to reshape the global order. The EU will need to focus on Trump’s priorities—key trade areas, China, and strategic autonomy—to maintain a productive relationship.

Amid these policy shifts, millions of refugees and asylum seekers remain caught in the crossfire. Trump’s pledge to reinstate policies like “Remain in Mexico” and his criticism of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) could worsen conditions for vulnerable populations. As US policies become more restrictive, the EU may face increased pressure to absorb displaced individuals, potentially hardening attitudes within the bloc toward immigration.

As we enter this new era in US-EU relations, the only certainty is uncertainty. Migration and immigration policies arising from this period will likely reshape transatlantic relations for years. Both sides must balance protecting their interests with maintaining the spirit of cooperation defining these relations for decades. For the EU, this may mean advancing strategic autonomy while engaging the US on mutual interests. The success of these efforts will profoundly impact not only the US and EU but also millions of people seeking safety, opportunity, and better lives across the Atlantic. As we navigate these waters, the human faces behind the policies and the shared values uniting these powers must not be lost.

Written by: Nenad Stekić