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Immigration has long been a polarizing issue in U.S. elections, and the upcoming 2024 presidential race is no exception. Candidates from both major parties are expected to leverage immigration as a key issue, shaping not only domestic politics but also influencing the global stage. Donald Trump’s hardline immigration stance during his 2016 campaign, for instance, resonated across the Atlantic, emboldening right-wing populist parties in Europe. These parties have since adopted similar anti-immigration platforms, advocating for stricter border controls and limited asylum opportunities.

As the 2024 election approaches, immigration will likely remain a central talking point. Candidates, particularly Republicans, have been vocal about tightening border security and reducing immigration levels, especially at the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump has proposed reviving policies like building a wall along the southern border and enforcing stricter deportation protocols. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates, such as President Joe Biden, promote more humane immigration reform, advocating for pathways to citizenship and greater support for refugees.

This rhetoric could further legitimize hardline positions within the EU, especially in countries where far-right parties are gaining ground. Hungary and Poland, for example, have already implemented restrictive immigration policies, and the 2024 U.S. election could embolden these countries to further tighten their borders, reflecting a broader trend of hardening immigration stances across the EU.

U.S. Immigration Policies and the Mexican Border

The U.S.-Mexico border remains a flashpoint in American immigration policy, with presidential candidates presenting starkly different approaches. Trump’s potential return to power could see a reinstatement of controversial policies, such as the “Remain in Mexico” program, and a renewed focus on building physical barriers to prevent illegal crossings. His proposed blanket 10% tariff on all imports could further exacerbate tensions with Mexico, leading to potential retaliatory measures.

By contrast, Biden’s administration has focused on reversing many of Trump’s immigration policies. Biden has sought to end family separations at the border, support asylum seekers, and provide legal pathways for undocumented immigrants. His approach emphasizes comprehensive immigration reform, addressing root causes of migration and promoting cooperation with Central American nations. These contrasting visions will shape the broader debate on immigration, not only in the U.S. but also in Europe, where issues of border security and migration flows remain politically charged.

Public Sentiment and Electoral Influence

Public attitudes toward immigration remain a crucial factor in shaping policy, both in the U.S. and the EU. While far-right parties have amplified anti-immigration rhetoric, public sentiment, particularly in Europe, has remained relatively stable or even positive, with many Europeans expressing empathy towards refugees, especially following the war in Ukraine. However, economic pressures or sudden migration surges could shift this balance.

In the U.S., immigration remains a contentious issue, with voters deeply divided along partisan lines. Trump’s focus on securing the southern border and reducing immigration resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, while Biden’s more progressive policies appeal to voters concerned with humanitarian issues. If U.S. candidates emphasize anti-immigration narratives during their campaigns, European politicians may follow suit, capitalizing on voter anxieties about border control and migration, leading to tighter immigration policies within the EU, regardless of public sentiment.

Transatlantic Relations and Policy Alignment

U.S. immigration policies often influence European approaches through transatlantic cooperation on migration and border security. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has promoted more humanitarian responses to immigration, which could encourage progressive EU leaders to adopt similar stances. However, a Republican victory, particularly if Trump returns, could prompt the EU to realign its policies toward stricter immigration controls.

Europe has traditionally looked to the U.S. for leadership on global issues, including migration. A Republican administration that emphasizes border security and reduced immigration may embolden European right-wing parties, pushing for tougher policies at both national and EU levels. This could affect ongoing discussions on EU asylum reform and border management.

Legislative Implications within the EU

U.S. election outcomes often ripple through European legislative agendas. Should U.S. policies shift toward more restrictive measures, European lawmakers, particularly from right-wing parties, may accelerate similar efforts to tighten immigration laws. With the upcoming European Parliament elections, far-right parties could gain more influence, pushing for tougher migration controls, including fortified external borders and stricter asylum processes. This may create a more fragmented political landscape, making consensus on immigration reform more difficult to achieve.

At the same time, centrist parties in Europe may feel pressured to adopt more conservative stances on immigration to avoid losing voters to the far right. This could lead to a more cautious approach to immigration reform, with EU leaders navigating a fine line between humanitarian obligations and domestic political pressures.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is poised to shape not only American immigration policy but also EU approaches to migration. Candidates’ immigration platforms, particularly those focusing on the Mexican border, will resonate beyond U.S. borders, influencing European political discourse and legislative actions. Whether it is Biden’s emphasis on humanitarian support or Trump’s hardline policies, the U.S. election will reverberate through transatlantic relations, potentially reshaping immigration strategies in both regions for years to come. As Europe continues to grapple with its own migration challenges—from labor shortages to humanitarian responsibilities—U.S. electoral outcomes will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of EU immigration policy.

Written by: Nenad Stekić